Civilizational Decline and the Liberal International Order
Arshakyan, Lilit
Arshakyan, Lilit
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Abstract
Traditionally, the Liberal International Order’s crisis is analyzed through the lens of shifting power dynamics, growing populist discourse and politics, democratic backsliding, and/or through binary frameworks like realism vs. liberalism. This research focuses on deeper, structural causes of this crisis and questions whether the LIO has entered its final “Civilizational exhaustion” phase, what Armenia’s experience after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war reveals about this decline, and whether the LIO has entered its final “Civilizational exhaustion” phase. Using Oswald Spengler’s cyclical theory of civilizations as the main lens of analysis, this research suggests that the LIO has entered the “civilizational” phase, the late stage of its cycle. It is important to mention that this framework is not used for prediction, but rather for interpretation. It provides a lens for understanding the liberal international order as a late civilizational formation whose institutions persist but whose creative moral energy has been exhausted. Spengler’s civilizational phase is characterized by rationalistic, standardized and functionally insufficient and/or paralyzed institutional structures. In other words, at this stage, the institutions become rule-bound and uniform, but they no longer function well. This can be seen in the LIO, especially after the Cold War when it became highly intrusive (some scholars call it the “postnational liberalism”), appeared stable but was characterized by “crisis of authority” and was fragile when faced with a real crisis. The study also uses Armenia’s experience after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War as a case study to confirm this hypothesis. Armenia isn’t just an example of geopolitical failure, it is also a case that exposes the civilizational exhaustion of the liberal order. The LIO’s response to the conflict was insufficient, exposing systemic limitations rather than just policy slipups. iii By analyzing the structural patterns of normative exhaustion, institutional formalism, and the practical irrelevance of liberal peacekeeping mechanisms in the face of widespread ethno-territorial conflict, this research concludes that the LIO’s crisis is a historical consequence of civilizational exhaustion. The Armenian experience reveals structural decay, moving the analysis of the current global disorder beyond temporary policy failures toward recognizing a transformation consistent with Spengler’s late-stage framework.
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Master of Arts in International Affairs -- John Cabot University, Fall 2025.
Date
2025
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Keywords
International relations, International cooperation, World politics
Citation
Arshakyan, Lilit. "Civilizational Decline and the Liberal International Order". Master's Thesis, John Cabot University, Rome, Italy. 2025.