Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: Transboundary Natural Resources, Institutions, and Interstate Tensions in the Indus, Nile, and Arctic
Cesaretti, Leonardo
Cesaretti, Leonardo
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Abstract
Climate change is changing the foundations of the world's political environment. Climate Change will be a factor that affects both the quantity and strategic significance of the natural resource base, as well as the average temperature, precipitation, and rate of melting for glaciers and sea ice (IPCC, 2023). Climate Change does not generate conflict, but changes how countries analyze and evaluate the actions of other States and the effectiveness of the current system of governance. The strains produced by climate change may create distrust in regions with sensitive inter-state relationships, reduce opportunities for collaboration, and generate new sources of conflict. This dissertation examines how climate change affects the creation and escalation of disputes over natural resources. Unlike many previous studies that treat the environment as a separate variable in conflict, this study examines the mechanisms through which climate change interacts with political tensions, power differences, and institutional structures. Research has been conducted on the relationship between climate change and security, but most of this work has focused on intra-state conflicts or has made general assumptions about the political context without adequately addressing the role of the political context. Additionally, fewer studies have investigated the effects of climate change on state-to-state interactions, particularly on treaties, diplomatic processes, and managing shared resources. This dissertation fills this gap by investigating the institutional characteristics that either facilitate or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related stresses leading to conflict versus collaborative responses. Data used in this thesis were collected as a result of an investigation of three geographic regions (the Indus River Basin, the Nile River Basin, and the Arctic) due to their differing ways in which Climate Change changes the Strategic Value of Resources. For instance, the effects of climate change on both the Indus and Nile River Basins will decrease available water; thus, climate change may increase risk to the functioning (current or disputed) of present-day water sharing agreements. Conversely, in the Arctic, climate change is creating new opportunities for accessing resources and establishing new shipping lanes; as such, it increases the incentive for competing parties to establish rights to certain areas of the Arctic. The three case study areas were chosen to enable an examination of how different climate change impacts interact with their respective political and institutional environments. A major finding of this dissertation is that climate change acts as a threat multiplier by creating uncertainty, exposing vulnerabilities within governance systems, and increasing the risk associated with resource management (Homer-Dixon, 1999) when there is turmoil resulting from climatic stressors. However, it is not just the pressure created by climate stressors that causes the turmoil. Rather, it is also dependent upon the robustness of institutions, the presence of a commonly agreed-upon vision among stakeholders, and the overall strategic dynamics among those who are engaged. In addition, if institutions in a particular region adapt to new information (are "fact-based") then, the stress caused by climate change can be managed through collaborative efforts; conversely, if they are weak, divisive or nonexistent, climate change will likely exacerbate pre-existing levels of conflict. The dissertation examines three regions and analyzes the conditions in which climate change creates additional tensions; and policy options that help build resilience in areas in which cooperative efforts may be difficult to achieve.
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Master of Arts in International Affairs -- John Cabot University, Fall 2025.
Date
2025
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Climatic changes
Citation
Cesaretti, Leonardo. "Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: Transboundary Natural Resources, Institutions, and Interstate Tensions in the Indus, Nile, and Arctic". Master's Thesis, John Cabot University, Rome, Italy. 2025.